A student demographic study projects that by the 2015-16 school year, Moorestown Public Schools will have at least 400 fewer students enrolled than the current enrollment of 4,151.

Professional demographer Richard Grip, of Statistical Forecasting Services of Secaucus, presented the study at the June 1 Board of Education meeting at Upper Elementary School.

His predictions overwhelmingly show that by the 2015-16 school year, the number of students enrolled in Moorestown Public Schools would be between 3,664 and 3,781.

During the 20-minute PowerPoint presentation, Grip presented his findings, showing bar and line graphs to demonstrate how a drop in new housing developments, higher-than-normal median age, low birth rate and absence of 20- to 34-year-olds in the demographics contribute to the decline in student population.

Grip opened the study presentation by explaining that he used historical data, showing actual numbers on a projection screen, to scientifically predict a drop in enrollment in the next four years and five years on a grade-by-grade basis.

In the housing market, his findings showed that there were 123 new homes built from 2005 to 2010 and he predicted there would be only 53 new, non-age restricted housing units built in Moorestown in the next five years.

“Any large-scale developments could impact those numbers,” Grip told a crowd of a few hundred—mostly Moorestown Education Association members wearing red shirts and in attendance to ask the board to negotiate and settle the contract disputes.

Grip also said that although the population in Moorestown has more than doubled since 1940 to 20,726 in 2010, the median age of the population is 42.1 years—well above the U.S. norm of 36 years or 37 years and the Burlington County norm of 40.4. It's closer to the median age of 42.7 in Maine, considered to have the oldest median age population in the country.

This is coupled with a drop in birth rates by 40. Moorestown’s rate is 22 while the New Jersey birth rate is at 66.

“Women of childbearing age from 20 to 34 are missing in the population,” which he conceded could be attributed to the more than $500,000 median housing cost in the community.

Grip also explained that one method used to predict enrollment is to compare the number of graduating high school seniors with the number of children entering kindergarten. In Moorestown, with a half-day program, he used figures from the first grade.

If those numbers don’t compare, or if the number of students leaving the school system is not replaced by the number of students entering the school system, as is the case in Moorestown, “it’s a negative kindergarten replacement,” he said.

In conclusion, Grip predicted that with a total buildings capacity of 5,100 students, by the 2015-16 school year, “(Moorestown) would be losing 487 students in the projections and show a surplus of seating.”

For real estate broker Donna Richardson of Main St. Realty in Moorestown, recent predictions show that the lower housing prices will probably not translate into families with children moving into the community, confirming Grip’s projections.

“Newer families are going to be smaller,” she said of families in the next five to 10 years. “It’s being predicted that one out of three couples are not going to have children,” she said, citing information received from economist Jeffrey Otteau, of the Otteau Valuation Group, who tracks changes and trends in real estate markets.

“Some of those couples may be looking for a more urban or convenient location, closer to work and transportation so they won’t be as concerned about a school district.”

But for those looking to move into Moorestown, the median prices of homes has already dropped into the $400,000 range, she said.

“Now is the time to buy. Prices are down and interest rates are down.”